BBER’s Barkey: “The Case of the Missing Recession”

MISSOULA –  While many economists anticipated a recession in 2023, it has not happened in Montana, according to Patrick Barkey, director of the University of Montana's Bureau of Business and Economic Research.

“Perhaps we should call it the case of the missing recession,” Barkey said.  “Economic downturns are often surprises, but what is surprising about the economy at midyear is that the recession that so many of us predicted has failed to arrive. Instead, employers have kept hiring and consumers have kept spending. What does that mean going ahead? More tough love from the Federal Reserve to try to slow the economy? Or is it time for a victory lap and say that the job is done?” 

Barkey and his BBER colleagues will be traveling to seven Montana cities at the beginning of August to present a midyear assessment of the outlook for the U.S. and Montana economies. In addition to the economic outlook, BBER will focus on the adequacy of Montana’s electricity supply.

The 90-minute program will discuss these issues and others affecting the state’s economic future. The program will include breakfast, lunch or afternoon snack, depending on the location. Registration is $35.  For more information or to register visit  EconomicoutlookSeminar.com.

Midyear Economic Update City Schedule:
Billings - Tuesday, Aug. 1 | 7 – 8:30 a.m. – breakfast | Big Horn Resort
Bozeman - Tuesday, Aug.1 | 11:30 – 1 p.m. – lunch | Best Western GranTree Inn
Butte - Tuesday, Aug. 1 | 4 – 5:30 p.m., appetizers | NorthWestern Energy General Office
Helena - Wednesday, Aug. 2 | 7:30 – 9 a.m., breakfast | Best Western Great Northern Hotel
Great Falls - Wednesday, Aug. 3 | Noon – 1:30 pm, lunch | Hilton Garden Inn
Missoula - Thursday, Aug. 3 | 7:30 – 9 a.m., breakfast | Hilton Garden Inn
Kalispell - Thursday, Aug. 3 | Noon – 1:30 pm, lunch | Hilton Garden Inn

Established in 1948, the Bureau of Business and Economic Research is the main research unit of the University of Montana’s College of Business. BBER researchers engage in a wide range of applied research projects that address different aspects of the state economy, including survey research, economic analysis, health care research, forecasting, wood products research and energy research. For more information on the bureau, visit bber.umt.edu or call 406-243-5113.